I have finally come barreling into the 1990’s and bought for myself a cell phone! Yes, look out, late-20th century technology! The Badger is here!
As for what cell phone I bought? I got onto T-Mobile’s website and for a scant $50 picked up a lovely Nokia 5310 (I got the purple one). It’s quite sleek and sexy, takes good pictures, and has external controls for the music player! No real complaints about it at all, actually.
In fact, I’m so pleased by it, and cell phone technology in general, that it got me thinking. Virtually everyone I know has a cell phone, and almost all of them have only a cell phone; no home land-line. So the question becomes: how much longer will phone companies continue to provide residential land-line service?
This isn’t a small question. To the phone companies the current system represents a huge infrastructure that they have to support and maintain. My mother, grandfather, wicked step-father, and a couple other family members all worked for AT&T/Pacific Northwest Bell/US West back in the day, so I have some idea of what’s involved. Why should the phone companies continue to support a massive network of wires when instead they can just install cell phone towers?
Sure, they’re going to continue to provide land-line services for businesses. Multi-line cell phones do not exist, as far as I’m aware. At least not in the, “This is Company X, how may I direct your call?” kind of way. But it doesn’t make any sense to continue to have the current phone network when people are using cell phones more and more.
This is especially true in developing countries that don’t have a large land-line network. It’s my understanding, and I don’t have sources on this cause I don’t remember where I read it, that several African countries are forgoing installing large phone networks and simply putting in a series of cell phone towers. I know in parts of Europe cell phones are used far more widely than regular phones, and so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the companies there beginging to end residential land-line services.
When do I think it will happen here in the USA? Dunno. I don’t think we’ll see it happen within the next ten years, but I don’t see there being residential land-lines after the next twenty years. The average there would give us a guesstimate of 2023 for the end of residential land-lines. To me, though, that seems a little far away, so I’m going to make the completely arbritrary guess of 2020 for the end of residential land-lines.
What do the rest of you think?
July 7, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I would say the majority of people will have just a cellphone, and no landline within the next 5-10 years. Most of the people i know only have their cellphones. My friends are just starting out on their own for the most part, moving into new apartments and houses, and they don’t even bother installing a landline phone. Its just easier having a phone that you can you use at home as well as one on the road that has the same number. My parents use their landline soley for local calls, they use their cellphones for the long distance calls since its free. So i don’t know how much longer they’ll have their landline.