Why Obama Will Win

Barack Obama is going to be our 44th President. He’s out ahead in the polls, he’s competitive in states like North Carolina and Virginia. He’s making progress in places like Indiana and North Dakota. He’s going to win, bar some amazing screw-up on his part or spectacular success by John McCain.

But why will Obama win? Certainly when you look at the raw statistics it doesn’t seem like he’d be America’s choice. First, he’s half-black. Second, he’s only had less than a term in the Senate. Third, he’s younger than we like our Presidents to be, and fourth he’s running against a well-liked, long established politician.

So why is he winning?

Well, there’s several reasons. Part of it is that America is sick of the GOP and sick of neocons in particular. We’ve seen what eight years with a neocon President can lead to, and we don’t want that again. McCain isn’t, in fact, a neocon, but he’s been spending the campaign running and acting as one. The fact that he’s in the same party as the least popular President in American history doesn’t help matters.

Next we have the fact that the economy is tanking. Big time. During times of great financial crisis it does tend to be the Democrats people turn to. Right or wrong, there is a perception that the Democrats are stronger on domestic issues than the Republicans.

Further, we have the fact that lots of people are sick of the war in Iraq and, again, right or wrong, the impression is that an Democrat will get us out of there while a Republican will only get us in deeper.

There’s other reasons, but here’s what I think is the most important one. Obama, especially during the debates, comes off as calm, intelligent and competent. McCain comes off as angry, desperate and unstable. Those two things more than anything else will be what will get Obama into the White House.

Consider that during the campaign McCain has, frankly, acted like a jackass. He’s launched a whole series of sometimes bizarre attacks on Obama, he picked someone with even less experience than Obama to be his running mate, he hasn’t outright condemed the racist attacks people on his side have launched on Obama. Every time he has the chance to rise above the fray and act like a statesman, he hasn’t taken it. Instead he’s done weird things like suspend his campaign to go get in the way during the bailout negotiations.

During his endorsement the other day, Colin Powell made statements similar to these. He’s a Republican, and he, too, is sick of McCain’s behavior, thinks Palin was a terrible choice and understands that Obama is the one who will be more likely to help make things better. And he’s a Republican, albiet not a strong Republican.

So for what it’s worth, I’m endorsing Obama. In that way I’m joining Powell, the Los Angeles Times (which hasn’t endorsed a candidate since Nixon), the Chicago Sun-Times (which never endorsed a Democrat until Obama), the conservative Republican blogger, Andrew Sullivan and many, many more.

We need to elect Obama. If we elect McCain, our country will survive, yes, but if we elect Obama, our country can thrive.