My Election Day Prediction


By Tuesday it’ll all be over except the shouting, which will go on and on and on and on and on and on…

Anyhow, it’s time for my election prediction! To do this prediction, I am using CNN’s electoral college calculator. Here is what it shows today.

I think they’re being a bit optimistic on what states are swing states. But, hey, their job, I suppose, is to get viewers and if they say that there’s almost no real swing states, that doesn’t exactly engage the viewer. Here’s the map from fivethirtyeight.com.

Sorry about the small size. Anyhow, I think that’s far more realistic. If you go to the website, you can click on each state and get the percentage likelihood of winning, which is fun.

To make my personal electoral college map, I blanked out the CNN map.

Then I plugged in my picks, and, what do you know, we wound up with something quite a bit like the 538 map.

My personal prediction for the 2012 United States presidential election.

As you can see, I say that Obama will end up with 303 electoral college votes, winning the swing states of Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. I gave Romney FLorida.

Now I suppose an argument can be made that I’m being overly confident. Very well. Let’s give Romney Virginia and Colorado, which I think is within the realm of reality, and 538 shows Obama’s chances of winning in those states as being in the 60 – 69% range, which is the lowest on the map for him. If I do that, Obama still wins with 278 electoral votes out of the 270 needed. Now if Romney took both of those swing states and took Ohio, which 538 shows Obama standing a nearly 80% chance of winning, then Romney does indeed win the election with 275 votes.

Now let’s try this in a situation where Obama wins Colorado and Virginia, as well as Ohio, and also takes Florida, where 538 shows Romney standing only about a 59% chance of winning. If that happens, Obama wins by 332 votes, which would please me to no end.

You can play with all sorts of scenarios on the calculator. But I think mine, which, as I admitted, bears a close resemblance to what is on 538, will wind up being accurate. Obama will win with 303 electoral votes and we can all collectively move on.

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