On the Eve of a Vote

Well, by this time tomorrow, give or take, we will hopefully know what the future of a nation will be, and if the Kingdom will remain United.

Yes, tomorrow the Scots get together and vote on whether or not Scotland should pull out of the United Kingdom and go their own way as an independent nation for the first time since 1707. The queen would apparently remain the Queen of Scotland as well. Well, unless the Jacobites resurface (and then they can pick from two choices!)

For the record, I expect that the vote will fail by about three or four percentage points, and to that I say good. I think Scotland’s future is best if it remains a part of the United Kingdom, and that’s not even going into all the logistical paperwork they’d face otherwise, with things like the UN, the EU, NATO and the like.

But if the vote goes for independence, well, the fallout will be interesting to see. I’m sure the transition would be peaceful and relatively easy, with hurt feelings on both sides that would subside after a couple of generations. But the larger question is what would happen elsewhere in Europe.

The Catalans have already made plans to have a referendum voting on independence for their part of Spain; an idea which the Spanish government is rejecting as unofficial and not going to happen. But an independent Scotland would put Catalonia in a stronger position. The same holds true for the Basques of the region who wand their Basque country. It could also lead to further agitation in places like South Ossetia and Ukraine.

Further, if the transition for Scotland is indeed peaceful and quiet, then it could serve as a model for countries like Belgium, which constantly seems on the verge of breaking apart.

I do hope the vote fails, but time will tell, and regardless, I’m sure it’ll all be ok in the end.

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