How Low Can You Go?


Well, if you’re Trump, you can go quite low on an ethical and rhetorical basis, but I’m actually talking about his poll numbers and chances of winning the election.

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A losing Trump is a vaguely annoyed Trump.

Following the Democratic convention, aka, Let the Adults Talk Now, Hillary’s numbers have shot up considerably, giving her as much as a 10 point lead in some polls.

Meantime, FiveThirtyEight’s polls plus forecast, which is fairly conservative, and based not just on polls, but also on historical data and other data points, shows Hillary standing a 74% chance of winning. If we look at polls only, we see a 79% chance, and if the election were today, the forecast is not only that she’d win (91.5% chance), but states like Georgia and Arizona would probably go blue, with a 40% chance of SC doing the same, while Utah, Alaska, Texas, Missouri, Montana, Mississippi (!), and the Dakotas also show not-insignificant chances of going blue as well.

Trump’s campaign really has cratered, and I hope it continues to sink. I want it to go down hard. So hard that it destroys the GOP for a generation. I want them to be forced to confront the unpleasant, fascist streak within their party, and put it down.

Mostly I want Trump to stay the hell out of the White House. I don’t even want him going on a tour. I don’t even want him to watch White House Down, though to be fair, I don’t want that for anyone. I want him to lose so hard that he flips not only the Senate, but also the House, and brings a few state legislatures and governors down with him.

In short, I want the Republican party to bleed, and to pay at the polls for all the crap they’ve been pulling since Reagan got elected. It’s high time they suffered a purge, and it looks like Trump might finally be the one who helps bring it about. Losing in 2008 didn’t. Losing in 2012 didn’t. Maybe, just maybe, losing yuge in 2016 will do the trick.

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