Pretty much like this.
Now there are still a few months to go, and many ways that this can go horribly wrong, but I think this is where we’ll end up in November.
A few points.
- I kept Arizona, my home state, red. I think it’ll go blue in time, but I just don’t see it happening right now. Close, but no cigar.
- I think Georgia will indeed go for Clinton, though not by much.
- I also think South Carolina will flirt a bit with swing status, but end up going red and by a fair margin.
- Missouri “feels” like it’s going to go blue this year. This isn’t much more than a feeling, but there you are.
- Trump might do ok in the Rust Belt, but I don’t see him actually winning any of the states there.
- He certainly won’t win Florida.
- Possible surprise states? Alaska, Utah, Montana, Kansas, and the Dakotas.
I could, of course, be very wrong here. Clinton could just narrowly squeak past, or could even lose, though I doubt that’s going to happen. For it to occur, we’d need something like the following:
Not impossible. Trump could, as I said, do very well in the Rust Belt. If he flipped Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, he’d have it done. This isn’t likely, but it’s not impossible.
Now for my plausible, but really, really unlikely dream scenario.
Is this at all likely? No. But it’s possible, and I do love the thought of Johnson winning in Utah. The Mormons seem to really hate Trump, and while I don’t see them being willing to vote for Hillary, I could see a third party person there.
We’ll know soon if I’m right or wrong, but for now I am at least quite hopeful.