Why I Don’t Carrier About This

Trump and his surrogates are crowing over the roughly one thousand American jobs saved by striking  deal with Carrier to keep said jobs from being moved to Mexico. Hooray, well done, etc, etc.


The problem is that this deal was struck by making the same terrible exchanges state and local governments often make to keep jobs; they agreed to various incentives and subsidies to keep them from leaving.

This is not, in of itself, terrible, but it isn’t really great, either. I’m not big on the idea of bribing companies to stay here in the USA. It strikes me as a Faustian bargain at best.

Here’s what’s going to probably happen: Carrier will stay in the USA for about two or three years, and then they’ll leave anyhow, possibly because Mexico offers them a better deal. That’s how these things work.

This is why Trump won’t succeed with his plan to bring back millions of American jobs from overseas. The economics don’t allow for it, and greater levels of automation have eliminated the need for many of those jobs.

So don’t give him, or Pence, too much credit on this. I don’t think it’s going to end well, and it certainly hasn’t started all that well.


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