The elections are tomorrow, and from everything I’ve been able to see, it looks like the Democrats are going to maintain control of the Senate but lose the House. Nate Silver suggests about 52/48 in the Senate and about 203/231 in the House.
These numbers are bad if you’re a Democrat like me (ie: one who is a Socialist by nature, but a Democrat by default), but they could be a hell of a lot worse.
What’s going to be interesting is to see how the Republicans/Tea Party people govern. They promised to repeal health care, which they can’t (Obama would veto, they can’t override that, and wouldn’t want to anyhow, given how popular the various elements of health care reform are). They likely won’t allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, but economically they won’t have a choice and will probably just howl like animals when they do it. I strongly doubt they’ll make any sort of compromises.
Basically I think we’re heading towards what we had in the late 1990’s when the government was shut down by Congress. That didn’t go well for them (or the President, given what he got up to during the down time), and I see much the same happening here. What does go through will likely be of some benefit to them and to the President, but the upshot of this is that I’m at least 80% sure Obama gets re-elected in 2012 and the Republicans likely lose Congress then, too.
Either way, congrats to them for winning, if indeed they do. I don’t even remotely approve of their message or their tactics, but they do tend to work (because the American public are very stupid). You guys are gonna win. Let’s see what you do next.