My Last, Best Guess

Election Day! I hope all of you who are eligible to vote are going to go out and do so!

Here’s my final guess on how I think the Presidential race will pan out.

360 votes for Obama, 178 for McCain

360 votes for Obama, 178 for McCain

Now, some explanation.

Despite McCain’s efforts, Obama will win Pennsylvania pretty handily. I expect he’s going to barely win in Ohio as well. Despite Indiana being listed as a toss-up by most people, I think they’re still going to end up going for McCain, same with Missouri.

Meantime, I think North Carolina will barely end up in the Obama camp. I think it will be by less than one percent. Florida will do the same, but probably by about two percent or so.

There’s a bit of wishful thinking with Montana and North Dakota, but not much. Montana has a very popular Democratic governor who has been pushing hard for Obama. As for North Dakota, shows Obama up by three points there.

And since I’ll have to explain Nebraska, here we go: I’ve read from a number of sources that there’s a large enough black population in Northern Omaha that they might be able to turn that one and only district in the state blue, thus giving Obama one electoral vote there. I may end up wrong, but I don’t think I am.

Further I think in a lot of the traditionally red states that stay red, the race will be closer than people expect. Watch for narrow victories in Georgia, and possibly even here in Arizona, where I think McCain will win, but by less than four percent.

Mind you, I’m just going by my instincts here. All this is entirely a guess on my part based on things I’ve read and seen. Regardless, the details might end up different from how I describe, but I think the conclusion will still end up the same.

Our 44th President will be Barack Obama.


My Best Guess

So the election is winding down. In less than three weeks we should know who our new President is.

With that in mind, I think it’s time for me to make my offical guesses here. First, I think Obama will win. I don’t think it’s going to be a landslide, but I do think it’s going to be pretty impressive and will include the Democrats winning in places they haven’t in a while. To illustrate this, let’s go to the map.

This map is taken from CNN’s electoral college calculator. What I’ve done here is taken almost all the states that are listed as leaning McCain and gave them to him, and all the states that are listed as leaning Obama and gave them to him. Since Maine and Nebraska split their votes, I gave McCain one in Maine and Obama three, while giving McCain four in Nebraska and one to Obama.

I took all the toss-up states except Ohio and gave them to Obama. Ohio goes to McCain on this map. Also, since it wouldn’t be an election without at least a couple surprises, I gave New Hampshire to McCain and Montana to Obama. I think both of these are not outside the realm of possibility.

So there’s my guess. We’ll see what happens come Election Day.