Live-Blogging the Election Results

So it seems to be completely finished. We’re still waiting for the results in Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and Alaska, but they don’t matter. It’s over, it’s done. Now we can move on and make sure the next four years are even better for the country than the previous four have been.

9:18pm – CNN has officially projected Obama to win Ohio and therefore the Presidency. It is over. The American people proved they aren’t as stupid as I often think they are.

Thank goodness.

9:17pm – CNN has called Missouri for Romney. No shock there, and likely small comfort.

9:16pm – Oregon now. It is almost impossible for Romney to win this. MSNBC has called it for Obama.

9:09pm – CNN projects Obama to win Iowa and New Mexico. No surprises in either one.

9:03pm – CNN now projecting Wisconsin for Obama and North Carolina for Romney. About time for both. 238 vs 191.

9:00pm – CNN is projecting the following: Obama takes California, Hawaii and Washington. No surprises with any of these. Romney takes Idaho and Montana. Obama now leads 228 to 176 in the electoral college out of 270 needed.

8:55pm – Puerto Rico had their vote today. 53% voted to change their current political status, with 65% then going on to say they wanted to be a state. Hooray! With luck, we’ll have another state in the next couple years, with two more Democratic senators and some more Democratic congressmen.

8:50pm – CNN has called AZ for Romney, of course, and Minnesota for Obama, of course. 169 to 157 now, but CA polls are about to close, and we all know where that one is going.

8:46pm – Been fiddling with CNN’s electoral vote calculator. If Obama takes Florida, as looks likely, it seems like Romney could take every other swing state, including Ohio, and lose. Let’s hope.

8:27pm – I am updating this a lot less frequently than I expected to. Bah.

8:04pm – Wolf Blitzer: “We’re about to make a MAJOR projection!” And that projection is…New Hampshire for Obama. So…yeah. That’s another four whole votes! Wowsers.

8:00pm – Here we go! CNN projects Romney in Utah. So no shock there. That seems to be their only projection right now. 158 to 143.

7:56pm – Another 21 votes getting knocked out at the top of the hour. It’ll be MT, UT for Romney and IA, NV for Obama. Or so I predict. Because I have a brain.

7:46pm – CNN is projecting Elizabeth Warren to win the Senate seat in Mass, and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. This is looking better and better for the Democrats!

7:41pm – CNN has called PA for Obama. That’s another 20 electoral votes.

7:07pm – CNN is now saying the GOP will keep control of the House. This is, again, no real surprise.

7:06pm – So far, the election is going exactly as predicted by 538. Of course, even if Silver gets it 100% right, he’ll still get his numbers in the next election trashed by whomever they don’t favor.

7:00pm – The following states have been called for Romney: Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska (taking at least 3 of the 5 votes), North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, and Mississippi. Not a single surprise with any of these states. For Obama we have: Michigan, New York, and New Jersey. That brings us up to 152 electoral votes for Romney vs 123 for Obama.

6:56pm – 14 states with 156 electoral votes closing at the top of the hour, including here in AZ. Fun times soon!

6:42pm – In the latest edition of Unsurprising News, CNN is giving Alabama to Romney, bringing us to 82 for him, 64 for Obama, but don’t be discouraged, Obama fans. The major liberal states like New York haven’t finished voting yet.

6:37pm – Still waiting for the polls here in AZ to close. I am, of course, favoring all the Democrats. I’m also against the initiative that would limit us to only two people in each election, and in favor of the initiative that would make our 1% sales tax increase permanent. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best way we have to fund education at the moment, since our governor has no interest in doing so.

6:30pm – Romney gets Arkansas and Tennessee. No shocks here. That brings us to 73 votes for Romney and 64 for Obama.

6:28pm – A number of pundits have made claims about how the election is going to go. Many will be wrong, some spectacularly so. Nothing will happen to those who are wrong, but should something happen to them, and if so, what?

6:19pm – CNN is showing that Maine will be electing Angus King as an independent Senator. Bob Corker wins in TN. Democrats in FL, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island.

6:13pm – Hmmm. CNN only just now called GA. For some reason I thought they had done so earlier. Oh, well.

6:08pm – Romney claims he’s written only one speech tonight, not two. Yeah…I doubt he really wrote either. I’m sure
his speechwriters wrote up two with his guidance. Anything else woudld be stupid.

6:60pm – So far Romney has more votes nationally, but let’s hope that changes. The last thing we need, regardless of who wins, is a repeat of 2000.

6:03pm – In other news, Bernie Sanders, the only openly socialist member of the Senate, has been reelected. Go, Bernie! Go, Vermont! I just wish he was actually affiliated wit the Socialist Party.

6:00pm – Per CNN, the following states have gone for Obama: Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts (one of Romney’s home states), Maine (3 out of 4 votes at least), and Rhode Island. Romney gets Oklahoma. Obama leads 64 to 40.

5:55pm – GA called for Romney. He’s now up 33 to 3, but don’t panic, my friends. This is nothing yet, since none of the more liberal states have checked in. Tons of states are closing at the top of the hour, and that’s going to give us a better picture.

5:44pm – CNN is calling South Carolina for Romney with 1% of the vote in and Obama up by 75%. Amusing, but likely accurate.

5:30pm – CNN is projecting Romney to win in West Virginia. No surprise there. That’s another 5 electoral votes for him. Polls have closed in North Carolina and Ohio, but we have no winner in either yet.

5:26pm – Here’s a poll.

5:23pm – CNN gives Indiana to Romney. No shock there. This gives Romney 19 electoral votes to Obama’s 3, but you’ll excuse me if I don’t panic just yet.

5:20pm – For fun, here’s the predictions from a conservative friend of mine. He says Romney will win by 285 electoral votes, taking the “swing” states of CO, FL, NC, OH, VA and WI. He thinks Obama will win IA, NH, NV, MI and PA. I think he’s right about Obama, but I think Obama will also take CO, VA and WI.

5:15pm – Now CNN is talking about some county in Indiana that has picked the right candidate in all but two elections. Big horking deal. If you have hundreds of counties, which we do, simple math indicates that over time at least a couple will end up seeming to be very accurate in what they pick.

5:00pm – CNN gives Vermont to Obama and Kentucky to Romney. Per the instructions of my mother, who lives in Kentucky, sorry about that.

4:55pm MST: Here begins the live-blogging. I guess we get to see where this goes. 538 is currently showing Obama standing a better than 90% chance of winning, with a slightly better than 50% chance of taking Florida, thus giving him about 313 electoral votes. I remain skeptical of that and stand by my earlier prediction.


My Election Day Prediction

By Tuesday it’ll all be over except the shouting, which will go on and on and on and on and on and on…

Anyhow, it’s time for my election prediction! To do this prediction, I am using CNN’s electoral college calculator. Here is what it shows today.

I think they’re being a bit optimistic on what states are swing states. But, hey, their job, I suppose, is to get viewers and if they say that there’s almost no real swing states, that doesn’t exactly engage the viewer. Here’s the map from

Sorry about the small size. Anyhow, I think that’s far more realistic. If you go to the website, you can click on each state and get the percentage likelihood of winning, which is fun.

To make my personal electoral college map, I blanked out the CNN map.

Then I plugged in my picks, and, what do you know, we wound up with something quite a bit like the 538 map.

My personal prediction for the 2012 United States presidential election.

As you can see, I say that Obama will end up with 303 electoral college votes, winning the swing states of Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. I gave Romney FLorida.

Now I suppose an argument can be made that I’m being overly confident. Very well. Let’s give Romney Virginia and Colorado, which I think is within the realm of reality, and 538 shows Obama’s chances of winning in those states as being in the 60 – 69% range, which is the lowest on the map for him. If I do that, Obama still wins with 278 electoral votes out of the 270 needed. Now if Romney took both of those swing states and took Ohio, which 538 shows Obama standing a nearly 80% chance of winning, then Romney does indeed win the election with 275 votes.

Now let’s try this in a situation where Obama wins Colorado and Virginia, as well as Ohio, and also takes Florida, where 538 shows Romney standing only about a 59% chance of winning. If that happens, Obama wins by 332 votes, which would please me to no end.

You can play with all sorts of scenarios on the calculator. But I think mine, which, as I admitted, bears a close resemblance to what is on 538, will wind up being accurate. Obama will win with 303 electoral votes and we can all collectively move on.

The Real Mitt Romney

Romney Unplugged

Want to know the opinion he harbors about 47% of Americans? Take a look at this video.

There is, possibly, a germ of truth here. I do think as Americans, we are entitled to health care, housing, and food. I think that as people we’re entitled to that. I further think that in a capitalist system, when someone is unable to acquire those things despite working hard and playing by the rules, the government needs to step in and help them out. But beyond that, yeesh. This guy really is a slimeball. You can read more of his fun comments here.

Romney: Foreign Policy Idiot

There was a time, not that long ago, when the conventional wisdom was that Democrats were better on domestic issues and Republicans were better on foreign issues. This view seemed to primarily be pushed by Republicans who wanted to see all cool and awesome against the Soviet Union, but I think there was at least a hint of legitimacy to it.

These days, however, the Republicans have, at least in my opinion, proven themselves unable to do either foreign or domestic policy with anything even approaching sanity. Just look at how George W fucked up our country at home and our standing abroad.

The foreign policy aspect of this is carefully intertwined with our insane stance on Israel; a stance that says they can do no wrong no matter what. That stance comes up, at least in part, because of certain right-wing wackos who are convinced that if Israel continues to be a powerful nation, it won’t be long until they rebuild the Temple of Solomon, and that will somehow trigger Armageddon. And the people who believe this are in positions of power. Yeah, gotta love democracy.

Anyhow, I doubt that Romney is part of that cadre of idiots, but clearly he has no clue on foreign policy or diplomacy, and seems to definitely belong to the current GOP school of thought that says, “We’re in charge! The rest of the world can fall in line or die!” This is showcased in his response to the recent attack on our consulate in Libya; an attack which resulted in our ambassador being killed.

I don’t want to go into all the details here (though Sully does here), but suffice to say Romney claimed the Obama administration’s first reaction was to apologize to Islam or some such nonsense. This is a lie. A pure, simple, unadulterated lie. That never happened. He also seems to believe a lot of other stupid foreign policy ideas, like that going to war with Iran is somehow a productive, effective, and possible notion.

Romney may be gifted in many ways, but he’s very unsuited to be president. This current debacle just adds fuel to that fire.

Live Blogging Romney’s Speech

Ugh. I’m exhausted now. That was tiring. As a Socialist I am, needless to say, unimpressed. I’m sure the GOP people probably loved it. It was filled with all the images they like and all the words they wanted to hear. I am curious to find out how this plays with the independent voters, however.

I’m also curious to see if the media in general will actually do their jobs and call out the Republicans in general, and Romney in particular, about the great many lies that he spoke.

FINAL GRADE: C+, maybe a B-. I think he probably shored up his base, but I doubt he managed to lure in that many fence sitters. And now…the cat video!

8:13pm – Remember, the world is only peaceful and free if America is running things! God forbid, say, the UK were in charge!

8:12pm – An America with a military so strong no other nation would dare to test it, eh? You mean like the one we have now? You mean the one we could cut in half and still have now?

8:11pm – The America he wants doesn’t succumb to resentment and divisions. Well, unless you’re an atheist, and then you don’t count.

8:10pm – I notice nothing here about how he plans to stop Iran from having nukes.

8:08pm – Now implying that America has never dictated to other nations and we have nothing to apologize for. Ask Cambodia. Ask Chile.

8:07pm – Now he’s being dismissive about climate change, and saying that he’s going to help your family instead. *eye roll* Yes, because things like droughts devastating farms don’t hurt families.

8:06pm – Unlike Obama, he won’t raise taxes on the middle class. Though Obama hasn’t done that. So, ok.

8:05pm – Fifth, champion small businesses, by lowering the already low taxes and streamlining things. He also wants to lower healthcare costs by repealing and replacing Obamacare, but he won’t say what with. Also, Obamacare will lower costs.

8:04pm – Third, new trade agreements, implying a crackdown on China. Good luck with that. Fourth, ensure that various investments won’t vanish, but he doesn’t really tell us how. That’s just par for the course, though.

8:03pm – Romney has a five part plan. First, energy independence by 2020, which will happen no matter what he does. Second, job training. Which would be run by the government?

8:03pm – He wants to create a world where no senior worries about their retirement. Well, possibly having Paul “Cut Medicare” Ryan on your ticket isn’t a good start.

8:02pm – Obama’s staged an assault on coal, oil, and gas? Not that I’ve noticed. Also apparently we need to keep the bloated military for jobs. Government jobs, right?

7:59pm – The old “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” saw. I am, actually, in almost every single way.

7:58pm – Why is he spending so much time talking about a company he “left” in 1999?

7:57pm – I have never heard anyone anywhere ever “apologize for success”.

7:57pm – Now he’s saying that the President is constantly attacking success, which is such a bullshit lie I don’t even know where to begin.

7:54pm – So Obama “failed” because he never ran a business. You know, like great businessmen such as Ronald Reagan, George Bush I and II, Richard Nixon Dwight Eisenhower, and Gerald Ford.

7:52pm – Yet again another implication that you have to have faith to be an American.

7:49pm – See, America? See? He loves women, honest! The GOP loves women, and I’m sure it’s a “legitimate” love.

7:49pm – Highlighting various important GOP women. No mention of Palin?

7:46pm – His father was fed as a refugee by the American government. So government should feed people in need?

7:45pm – The uber patriotism is giving me heartburn.

7:45pm – I see a sign saying “Mitt the Job Creator”. Yes, this about a man who made his money firing people en masse.

7:43pm – “I wish president Obama had succeeded because I want America to succeed”. Did he raise any objections when his party committed itself to stopping Obama from day one?

7:40pm – So this part could be somewhat effective. It’s worth noting, however, that during the last few decades the Republicans haven’t lifted a finger to bring down the debt, and in fact, I seem to remember a Republican saying that deficits don’t matter.

7:38pm – “Americans always come together after elections.” Remind me again who it was that said the number one goal had to be denying Obama a second term?

7:38pm – So, we’ve had Mom mentioned and America mentioned. Can we get some apple pie now?

7:37pm – Paul Ryan’s face still looks weird to me. I can’t put my finger on why.

7:35pm – *gasp* He’s using telepromters! He can’t be elected now!

7:35pm – What a sea of white and grey.

7:32pm – Finally Romney time. Rubio’s speech was acceptable, I suppose, though I’m very put out by the notion that if you don’t believe in God, you aren’t a true American.

7:31pm – I can guarantee that the world will, indeed, be astonished if we vote out Obama in favor of Romney.

7:27pm – Ooooo…a sentence of Spanish emphasizing the importance of people immigrating to this country. So remind me how the GOP plans to handle immigration reform?

7:26pm – Are we there yet? I tuned in watch the Romney speech, not Eastwood and Rubio.

7:25pm – A direct pitch to the youth vote. I don’t imagine that’s going to work well, especially since Obama is the one who’s reformed student loans to make repayment easier over the objections of the Republicans.

7:23pm – Our country is united by a belief that “Almighty God is the source of all we had,” and that apparently faith in God is the most important thing for Americans. So if you don’t believe, you aren’t an American. Lovely.

7:21pm – I love that the Republican mantra is about how horribly divisive Obama is. This from the party where one of the major leaders said that their number one goal in 2009 had to be denying Obama a second term in office.

7:20pm – Argh, so many lies in just one sentence.

7:19pm – The good golfer line was awkward. The rest about Obama being not a bad person, but a bad president was decent. I’m pretty sure Rubio is positioning himself for 2016.

7:16pm – It’s mildly surreal to see someone wearing a red tie standing in front of a red background complaining about Cuba.

7:15pm – If we want more freedom for Cuba, we need to open trade with them.

7:14pm – And now, Rubio.

7:13pm – Not a horrible speech, but kind of rambling and confusing. I don’t sense much “red meat” for the delegates to sink their teeth into.

7:11pm – “We own this country.” Yes, Mr. Eastwood. So do I. So do the Democrats. So do the politicians, in fact. So do all Americans.

7:11pm – Eastwood doesn’t seem overly enthusiastic here.

7:10pm – So we aren’t supposed to want a president who weighs both sides of every argument? And businessmen don’t weigh both sides? If they do, I’m sure they go out of business fairly quick.

7:09pm – “You’re getting as bad as Biden.” Ok, that was a good line.

7:08pm – Now we’re supposed to want to bring the troops home instantly? That’s not how it works, Mr. Eastwood. Logistics aren’t like that.

7:07pm – Wait, wait. Is Eastwood criticizing Obama for supporting the war in Afghanistan? I’m confused now.

7:06pm – This “talking to the empty chair” business is really bizarre.

7:06pm – “Possibly it might now be time for someone else to come along and solve the problem.” Now there’s a strong endorsement!

7:03pm – Conservative people play it a little more close to the vest? Really? Yes, because when I think of quiet and withdrawn I think of folks like Donald Trump, Sara Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Michelle Bachman.

7:03pm – And now, here’s Clint Eastwood. Eh.

7:02pm – The “WE DID BUILD THIS!” theme needs to go the fuck away. What a stupid concept. Building your entire convention around a lie. The sad part is that it seems to work.

7:01pm – I really look forward to the point where the majority of voters cringe a bit when they hear a candidate described as “a man of faith”. Give it time, and this shall happen.

6:59pm – “…every employee was critical to the success of Staples.” That would be why they’re paid more than the CEO. Oh, wait.

6:57pm PDT – Watching now. It’s the Mitt Romney infomercial, talking about his Mexican father. I’m willing to bet he wouldn’t be welcome in today’s GOP.

Paul Ryan? Really?

Positioned on the right of the article, of course.

CNN is reporting that Mitt Romney has picked Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his vice-presidential candidate. I’ll admit, I was wrong. I thought Bobby Jindal was the sure pick, but there you are.

Ryan is a conservative Republican congressman representing Wisconsin’s 1st District. He’s been in office since 1999 and, as near as I can tell, hasn’t accomplished that much. On the other hand, he’s a darling among the Tea Party crowd, and apparently loves himself up some Ayn Rand. No accounting for taste, I guess.

One of the reasons to pick a particular person for vice-president is to help win the state they are from. Ryan is from Wisconsin, which is, at present, a swing state. It does vacillate somewhat between red and blue. They have an infamous Republican governor right now, but a strong legacy of Progressive governors. But frankly with the problems the governor there stirred up a couple years back…well, I don’t see it going red this time around. Plus unemployment is well under the national average, so I don’t see people voting for Romney out of economic concerns.

I think part of why Romney picked Ryan is to boost his standing with the conservatives who currently don’t trust Romney. Ryan may help with that, but at the cost of independent voters, who might very well be turned off by his conservative stances on many issues.

Ultimately I don’t think there’s anyone Romney could have really picked that would have helped much with this race. He seems to be doing worse and worse as time goes on, and as it stands right now, Obama would likely win in November. This could, of course, change, but I think Romney missed a real chance to pick someone different from the previous candidates. Instead we have the whitest man ever to run for the presidency picking another very white man to run alongside him.

And, for the record, that really goofy-looking picture is his official portrait. So, yeah.