Now the real work begins.
Now the real work begins.
Election Day! I hope all of you who are eligible to vote are going to go out and do so!
Here’s my final guess on how I think the Presidential race will pan out.
Now, some explanation.
Despite McCain’s efforts, Obama will win Pennsylvania pretty handily. I expect he’s going to barely win in Ohio as well. Despite Indiana being listed as a toss-up by most people, I think they’re still going to end up going for McCain, same with Missouri.
Meantime, I think North Carolina will barely end up in the Obama camp. I think it will be by less than one percent. Florida will do the same, but probably by about two percent or so.
There’s a bit of wishful thinking with Montana and North Dakota, but not much. Montana has a very popular Democratic governor who has been pushing hard for Obama. As for North Dakota, pollster.com shows Obama up by three points there.
And since I’ll have to explain Nebraska, here we go: I’ve read from a number of sources that there’s a large enough black population in Northern Omaha that they might be able to turn that one and only district in the state blue, thus giving Obama one electoral vote there. I may end up wrong, but I don’t think I am.
Further I think in a lot of the traditionally red states that stay red, the race will be closer than people expect. Watch for narrow victories in Georgia, and possibly even here in Arizona, where I think McCain will win, but by less than four percent.
Mind you, I’m just going by my instincts here. All this is entirely a guess on my part based on things I’ve read and seen. Regardless, the details might end up different from how I describe, but I think the conclusion will still end up the same.
Our 44th President will be Barack Obama.
So the last of the debates are tonight. Number three. Yep, for the position of “Most Important Person in the World” we get exactly three debates. w00t, yay, democracy, etc.
Apparently according to a recent poll, McCain is a whopping 14 points behind Obama. This creates a very interesting dynamic for tonight. It means that McCain has to perform perfectly tonight. He cannot afford to make any mistakes or screw-up. He needs to bring his A game and thoroughly trounce Obama. Anything else and he stands no chance of catching up to Obama in the polls and winning the election.
As for what Obama needs to do? All he has to do is remain calm and collected and not do anything stupid. Right now states that the Democrats almost never win, like North Carolina and Virginia, are in play. If he performs even moderately-well tonight he can bring them more fully into the fold and put some new states into toss-up mode. But even at the worst, I expect he’d still not lose any states.
Like before I’ll be writing my impressions of the debate as it goes. Unlike before I won’t be at work, so I’ll actually be able to do it without any calls interrupting me. Yay! 🙂 See you all once the debate begins!
CNN has an electoral vote calculator you can play with. It’s fascinating.
On the map we see blue and red states. The darker the color, the more likely they are to vote GOP or Democratic. The yellow states are Libertarian. No, not really, but wouldn’t that be interesting? No, those are toss-up states.
Go to the map. You there? Ok. From this you can see McCain has something of an uphill battle. Just with this map as it is, Obama has 250 electoral votes to McCain’s 189. Now let’s go play with the numbers some.
Assign the following states to McCain: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Then give only Ohio to Obama. See what happens? McCain loses.
Let’s try a different method. Give Obama the states of Nevada, Colorado and Wisconsin, three states where I believe he’s likely to do well. Give the rest to McCain. Obama wins. Give Obama only Virginia and Wisconsin. He wins. Give Obama only Florida. He wins.
The math is really working against McCain. If Obama wins only Florida or only Ohio from the toss-up states, he gets the White House. McCain has an uphill fight. I don’t think Obama will get all those toss-up states, mind you, but I do expect he will get Wisconsin and Virginia and just those two give him the win.
Maybe, just maybe, if all goes well we’ll have only the second Democratic president I can ever remember (since I don’t remember Carter). I can hope.
So the first Presidential Debate of this election (not counting the roughly five million primary debates), is going to happen on Friday. Maybe. It apparently depends on what’s happening with the $700 billion bailout of the various banks in our country.
Both candiates have weighed in on their plans for campaigning and their ideas for whether or not the debate should happen. McCain is suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to help/get in the way. He’s also making noises about suspending Friday’s debate.
Obama, on the other hand, points out that someone who is trying to be president should be able to do more than one thing at a time, and that they both have big airplanes with their logos on them that can ferry them from Washington to the debate in a fairly short amount of time. He’s also continuing to campaign and staying out of the way in Washington because he doesn’t want the whole discussion of the bailout to become mired in “presidential politics”.
I agree with Obama here (big shock). The debate should continue. We need to hear from both candidates in a forum like this. We need to hear their answers to some of the important questions of the day. Yes, there’s a small (large) crisis in Washington right now, and they both need to go vote on whatever gets voted on. But once that’s done? They need to go to the debates. We the people have a right to them. There’s no need for a delay, especially with only about 40something days until the election.
On a side note, I agree with CNN’s Campbell Brown. Put an end to the sexist treatment of Sarah Palin!
Barak Obama said the following the other day:
“You know you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. You know you can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change, it’s still going to stink after eight years. We’ve had enough of the same old thing.”
Of course this was a veiled swipe at Sarah Palin. Right? Right?
Well, if you’re John “Hanoi Hilton” McCain, it sure is. The McCain camp is up in arms over this, and demanding, demanding, I say!, an apology. They won’t be getting one, apparently.
“I don’t care what they say about me. But I love this country too much to let them take over another election with lies and phony outrage and swift boat politics,” [Obama] said in Norfolk, Virginia. “Enough is enough.”
It’s especially ironic when you consider that McCain used the same damn phrase at least twice, and both times was talking about some of Hillary Cliton’s policy ideas! Oh, well. I guess when your campaign is about personality more than issues, because you haven’t got any sort of a decent stand on the issues, you’ll distort, smear and outright lie on just about everything you can in order to win.
Sometimes a pig is just a pig. In the article I link to above, at least Mike Huckabee gets that. I’m sure John “When I was a prisoner in Vietnam, we didn’t have pork” McCain knows better, too, but is pretending he doesn’t, cause clearly he’ll say and do just about anything to get elected.
And to think that once I used to respect him.
So the Democratic National Convention is starting up. I can’t possibly be less interested. Well, I can be, I suppose, when the GOP has their turn.
The conventions bore me to tears. For every good moment, like Obama’s speech at the 2004 convention, there’s all sorts of dull, boring, untinteresting moments, like the entire rest of the convention.
I understand there’s a certain necessity to the conventions. They enable the parties to galvanize their support, to focus their energy and message, and to dominate the media for a week or so. But, man, I just don’t care. Which is sad, given my political interests. Oh, well. Things will get interesting again once the debates start up!